In the history of Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight election forecasts, I’m not sure there’s ever really been a case where we’ve been completely on the other side of the conventional wisdom — in other ...

You’ve heard a lot about Michigan. But Democrats may have bigger problems in states where voters don’t trust their governance ...

It’s not unreasonable to approach election polls from a position of mild — maybe even more-than-mild — skepticism. In some cases this year, they’re projecting remarkable things, like Democrats having ...

The “drafts” we’ve periodically conducted for the 2028 Democratic and Republican nominations are popular features with Silver Bulletin readers. No apologies for that. I’m not going to tell you that ...

Here at Silver Bulletin, we’ve been predicting that AI would become one of the most salient political issues for quite some time. That hasn’t happened with the general public quite yet — just 1 ...

Pop quiz. Which Senate seat are Democrats more likely to flip: Ohio or Maine? This might seem like an easy question. In 2024, Kamala Harris won the Pine Tree State by 7 points, but lost the Buckeye ...

It’s sometimes said that wealth is “destroyed” when the stock market declines, but it’s worth unpacking what that means. On the one hand, it’s true that when your investment portfolio loses value, ...

Yesterday, I complained about how so many pollsters are “herding” by publishing results that are almost an exact tie in a way that is incredibly statistically ...

It was once a political truism that the GOP had the more regular and reliable voters, educated suburbanites who voted even in municipal elections. So Republicans tended to do better in lower-turnout ...