You’ve heard a lot about Michigan. But Democrats may have bigger problems in states where voters don’t trust their governance ...

Here at Silver Bulletin, we’ve been predicting that AI would become one of the most salient political issues for quite some time. That hasn’t happened with the general public quite yet — just 1 ...

It’s not unreasonable to approach election polls from a position of mild — maybe even more-than-mild — skepticism. In some cases this year, they’re projecting remarkable things, like Democrats having ...

SBSQ is a popular feature. But it’s time to reboot SBSQ. Please leave questions for SBSQ edition #32 in the comments below.

In the history of Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight election forecasts, I’m not sure there’s ever really been a case where we’ve been completely on the other side of the conventional wisdom — in other ...

Last night, Marist College published a poll showing Democrat Josh Turek leading by 8 points in Iowa’s Senate race. Our Silver Bulletin polling average forecasts a much closer race — with Turek ahead ...

Have you ever heard about the Immortal Snail? It’s an intermittently popular internet meme that goes something like this: You’re offered 10 million dollars. What’s the catch? A snail will spend the ...

If you’re an avid Model Talk reader, you won’t be surprised by today’s newsletter. After taking tours through the most competitive House and Senate contests over the past two weeks, we’re moving on to ...

Two years ago on this date, we were still in the waning days of Brat Summer. Kamala Harris reached her peak in our presidential forecast on Aug. 14, though she’d never really achieved escape velocity, ...

In case you missed it, we launched our 2026 election forecast — now named FLIPR — on Tuesday. On balance, the model is bullish on Democrats’ chances in November. But while it currently rates the House ...